Now I’ll look at the ACT the first of the two territories and on history it has benefited labor.
The seat of fraser has been held by labor since 1974 when it was created, the seat of Canberra has only been in liberal hands twice 1975-80 and 1995-96. the old seat of ACT which preceded it always benefited labor and the seat of namadgi (question on spelling) which existed in 96 and abolished in 98 on the pendulum. Canberra is the more marginal (alp 9.1%) which is beyond even if the landslide predicted against Gillard over the public servants cuts. The liberals expect Fraser (alp 14.2) despite the name of the other seat is always been safe Labor and is well out of liberals reach being an entirely metropolitan territory means there is no National party making it a Labor v Liberal contest with the greens coming third.
This should stay the same in the lower house but the senate pulls an interesting scenario with popular senator gary Humphries losing his pre selection to act liberals opposition leader Zed Vazeldua (third job in a year) who brought the last election to a tie with the one green giving labor government and he faces a tough challenge from a popular green candidate. But for the libs vote to fall below a third the quota required for a seat looks unlikely and even then the greens would hope the libs don’t get many preferences and still have to beat the second labor candidate the incumbent labor senator kate lundy should hold on easy. There is no word of a bullet train party candidate (not the name) in this state despite discussion.
prediction lower house labor 2
prediction upper house labor 1 liberal 1
next i’ll cover western Australia
Harrison’s world 