welcome to my political opinion site ‘political posturing’!
I am beginning with a preview for the election on September 7 state by state. For those who are interested I am a labor backer but I will try to be impartial.
I will start with the state of south Australia. There has been 11 seats since Boothbyon was abolished in 2004, leaving labor with only one safe seat in Port Adelaide. The loss of Adelaide in the 90s made sa with fewer seats in fact in 2004 going in with only Port Adelaide and Kingston with incumbents but also had wakefield. Post redistribution both Kingston and wakefield were lost in 04 but regained in 07 but labor gained Adelaide back and Hindmarsh both won for the first time since bob hawke was prime minister. Labor also gained Makin in 07 and came short in Boothby and Sturt which remained unchanged in 2010 with Labor sharply increasing their margins in their seats making Port Adeliade labor’s safest non-Victorian seat and making Kingston the next safest seat in the state and securing their hold on Makin.
Despite that polls indicate labor may go backwards indeed without marginal seats the interest will be on Adelaide (ALP 7.5) and Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1) the most marginal seats in the state both have high profile mps. but I was in the electorate of Adeliade recently and there is no small presence of liberal posters. If the polls go the opposite way Boothby (Lib 0.6) which may change anyway without a swing to the coalition in the seat since the incumbent came in and Sturt (Lib 3.6) which has Chris Pyne still not safe. If the swing gets big then Wakefield (alp 10.5) could be under threat and labor may be in trouble in Kingston (alp 14.6) and Makin (alp 12.1) but both seats look out of the liberals reach on the margin. Labor should easily hold Port Adeliade and the Libs should hold Mayo and Grey the question is can the nats challenge the libs in barker (lib 13.7) which wasn’t contested by the nats in the last election but after they handed labor state government it might not be that easy.
The senate has four of the six incumbent senators. Interesting Penny Wong after going behind the back of Gillard, who was from this state, is benefitted from being number one but if people vote below the line there may be a backlash against her. Independent Xenophon should hold on the same vote but may face the back lash against Independents generally. Hansen young would be the Greens only hope but if the polls continue she has little chance and Bernardi should overcome the horrible comments he’s made as he is first on the Lib ticket and it is hard to get votes from below the line candidate (although I have a few friends who like him).
ACT later today.
prediction overall lower house labor 6, liberal 5
prediction upper house liberal 3 labor 2 independent 1
Harrison’s world 