Today I am talking about the big state of nsw. This state is the biggest state in seats but has lost several seats in recent years being Lowe and gwydir. no change to boundaries this time.
The big battle ground is west sydney, one of these seats lyndsay (alp 1.1) where polls see the libs taking it easily despite a comment this week about their candidate. Greenway (alp 0 9) is the states most marginal and should easily fall. Banks (alp 1.4) Reid (alp 2.7) would likely fall for the first time in a long time. The swing could get worse and then parramatta (alp 4.4) and McMahon (alp 7.8) are risky seats while traditional seats werriwa (alp 6.8) and Watson (alp 9.1) and fowler (alp 8.8) could go but the last two should not fall. neither should chifley (alp 12.3) and blaxland (alp just less).
Outside of Sydney Robertson (alp 1.0) and dobell (alp/ind 5.1) are gone. Labor has three rural seats and page (alp 4.2) and Eden monaro (alp 4.2) are close but despite mike Kelly’s promotion probably won’t hold and will go with government as usual, but page should stay as should Richmond (alp 7.0) labor’s other under threat seats in Sydney are Barton (alp 6.9) and kingsford smith (alp 5.1) while labor has to fight the greens in Sydney (alp 18.5) and graydler (alp 4.7 v grn) make them no certainty. Labor might get Macquarie (lib 1.3) the ex litmus test seat (currently Eden-Monaco) mcarthur (lib 3.0) while labor’s only rural hope is Gilmore (lib 5.3). It would take a big labor win for benelong (lib 3.1) and Patterson (lib 5.3) to change but no change likely for the conservatives in Hughes, parkes, Calare, riverina, Hume, cook, north sydney, warringah, berorwa, Mitchell, Bradford, mckellar, Cowper, farrer. Hume might possibly have changed with a nat candidate while Cowper would be a unlikely change. Labor should hold their 4 hunter region and 2 Illawarra seats. New England is interesting as Barnaby Joyce is trying to move to the lower house but may still be challenged by their original candidate Richard Torbay, we will know later today, otherwise he still win. Lyne should return to the nats after Oakshott.
The senate should see 2 libs and a nat an 2 alp. For the libs to gain a majority in the senate this would be their last chance on a 4th seat if Queensland and wa succeed, but the odds are against it. The last spot would either be the first green or the third alp candidate
Prediction lower house labor 18 liberal 24 nat 6
Prediction upper house labor 2 nat 1 lib 2 greens 1
Harrison’s world 