Another preview this time in qld. This state with 30 seats is the fastest growing state since 93. This is the second election without a new seat (first being 01) this state is labor’s worst traditionally in 75 they held only oxley in 96 only held Brisbane and rankin. In 98 labor did so badly they handed the libs the new seat of Blair but regained Dickson, Lilley, Griffith, bowman, oxley and capricornia they also gained Ryan in a by election in 01 but the vote has gone backwards losing Dickson and Ryan in 01 and bonner and bowman (which than was a notional lib seat ) in 04. labor got to 15 seats under Rudd and up to 17 after a redistribution but are back to 8 seats but a lot of interest in if rudd’s comeback will effect the election.
The first two labor seats to watch are Petrie (alp 2.5) and Morton (alp 1.1) both were lib seats going into 07 but both lacked the candidate last time as the member for petrie moved to the seat of Brisbane (lib 1.13) which was held by labor since 1980 but was a shock change last time. The candidate for Moreton also has big shoes to fill. Brisbane would be the first to go if Rudd won. Lilley (alp 3.2) has issues in that ex treasurer Wayne swan damaged the economy. It was the libs biggest target until the leadership change but now the focus is on the prime ministers seat of Griffith (alp 8.5) labor’s only non marginal seat and Abbott has been campaigning second hardest in that, but it won’t change.
Capricornia (alp 3.7) is marginal without an incumbent so could easily fall. Labor’s seats in the south of Brisbane oxley (alp 5.8) and rankin (alp 5.4) where Emerson is retiring are long shots for the libs. Blair (alp 4 2) can go either way if the libs win but would stay alp if they win. due to the labor voting area of Ipswich.
The conservatives only have a long history in 6 of their 20 seats wright, maranoa McPherson and fadden, groom and moncrieff. These and wide bay can’t fall to labor and while the Katter and palmers parties could make it interesting. The seats to watch are Flynn (nat 3.5) where labor has their strongest state seat (not held by them though I meant v lnp) could go either way. Dawson (nat 2.4) is a three way contest after.close fight of three parties. Two safe seats fairfax (lib 6.9) and hinkler (nat 10.4) both with popular incumbents retiring and could be a big swing and with Clive palmer’s own party make it tough. Fisher (lib/ind 4.1 v alp) is a tough call but with the long awaited match up of slipper v brough labor has a chance. brough’s old seat longman (lib 2.6) is a swing seat and can fall to labor against the parliament’s youngest mp. Leichart (lib 4.6) and Herbert
(lib 2.1) are two other ones that it could go three ways. In Brisbane Dickson (5.1) is more secure but is still a threat. Bowman (lib 10.4) has the margin inflated but will hold. Bonner (lib 2.8) can go either way as can forde (lib 1.6) with Peter Beattie as a candidate. Ryan (lib 7.2) is no chance for Labor. No change in Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy (KAP 18.3 v nat)
As with the senate the libs and nats need four seats between them and to replace Boswell and Boyce. labor also needs to replace Hogg. katter and palmer will fight the greens for the last seat. Conservatives will get 3 and labor 2. Labor can win the third if it goes well.
Prediction lower house labor 11 liberal 14 nat 3 KAP 2
Prediction upper house labor 2 lib 2 nat 1 KAP 1
Harrison’s world 