Next I am going to look at the key state of Tasmania this state has a history of one sided results with no libs elected in 98, 01, 07 or 2010 but has seen the same result for labor in 75-87 when labor regained Denison. It has always been entitled to 5 seats regardless of population.
This election looks to be the return of the libs to the lower house. the first seat to watch is bass (alp 6.7) which looks to get another new mp. Polling had the libs winning on primary vote alone but after Rudd took over the race it has tightened but it is highly unlikely to be held. Braddon (alp 7.5) is also under major threat as it was lost in 04, this seat was held by labor 4 out of 5 elections like bass, but is very vulnerable. The third seat to watch is Denison (ind 1.2 v alp) both labor and the greens want Wilkie gone but as an incumbent it should be an interesting race. If the swing against Labor gets too much then franklin (alp 10.8) and Lyons (alp 12.3) could be under threat but that would be improbable.
With the senate the libs need a third seat which would come at the expense of labor. This is the only state where the greens won’t lose a seat, but to get to 42.9% is no easy task. Since the last election there was a change in labor senators but that effects 2016 not this election. The battle for the last seat will be the big focus.
Prediction lower house labor 2 lib 2 ind 1
Prediction senate labor 2 lib 3 green 1
Harrison’s world 