Wa election preview

Another preview this time for the 15 seat state of wa (western Australia).

The state has been a strong liberal state federally for a long time with the last labor majority at the 2001 redistribution, but hasn’t held a majority at a Federal election for a long time and hold only 3 seats which is less than the amount of senators. The libs hold 11 with one nat. This makes the wa state election important where labor lost 7 seats but regained the state seat of fremantle.

Labor’s most marginal seat is Brand (alp 3.9) this seat had always been labor even in 96 when then Beazley moved there.and has only nearly been lost once.  It wasn’t affected by the state swing.  Then there is Beazley’s old seat Swan (lib 2.5) which was lost in 07 and 10 (after redistribution) after labor won it back but could go back if labor do well at the election but this area went against labor at state level so it is unlikely. Next door Hasluck (lib 0.6) is very marginal and since its creation has never elected an incumbent and is held by Australia’s first indigenous Federal MP but also is north of the swan river and might just stay lib. Perth (alp 5.9) has had a roller coaster unholdable under Gillard was likely to be held under Rudd until Smith retired making it vunerable, and then labor preselected a former state minister and most successful candidate in terms of swing towards them at the last election, but it will have the location problem.  Fremantle (alp 5.7) hasn’t been lost since the 30s and is completely out of the libs
reach since Rudd took over as under Gillard labor could still have held it as the location favours labor. Don Randall won’t lose again in Canning (lib 2.2) as there is no popular candidate this time against him and despite losing popular judi moylan Pearce (lib 8.9) wouldn’t change without a nat swing, but even that shouldn’t beat former wa treasure christian porter. Cowan (lib 9.5) the other seat labor lost in 07 won’t go back. The two rural seats Durack (lib 13.7) and OConnor (nat 3.6 v lib) are very hard seats with both incumbents retiring and are fought out between the libs and nats.  No chance of change in Forrest, Moore, curtin, tangey and Stirling won’t leave the lib fold.

The senate is where the libs need 4 seats to get into a senate majority situation. both parties lose a senator with former labor leader chris Evans (not related) and Alan eagleton. (Lib senator who is retiring) the greens senator Scott Ludlum is under threat but if the vote falls below 42.9% the three quota amount makes it hard to recover. the nats also hope for a senate seat which may be a difference in this state

Prediction lower house labor 3 liberal 11 nat 1
Prediction senate lib 3 labor 2 green 1