My last preview in the state profile is of Victoria, where I live. Once a strong conservative state now has two more conservative seats than wa. This state has some potential for both parties but the replacement of Gillard will hurt labor most in this state with the question being how close it will be.
the first seat to watch is Melbourne (grn 5.9 v alp) the greens only lower house seat this will be hurt by liberal preferences now going to labor, but brandt is popular and won’t go down easy. batman (alp v grn 7.5) won’t change despites ferguson’s retirement. For the libs there are a few chances, deakin (alp 0.6) where the redistribution will hurt will change now. Latrobe (alp 1.6) also looks gone for labor as does corangamite (alp 0.3) gillards departure will hurt them. If labor holds Latrobe and deakin then Aston (lib 1.0) and casey (lib 1.8) could go labor with just a small swing. Two shadow ministers have problems. Bruce billson dunkley (lib 1.2) is a swing seat. Sophie Mirabella in indi (lib 9.0) is under threat by an independent and could be a very close battle against my relative Cathy McGowan (no I’m not biased but she is very good). The seats of Chisholm (alp 5.8) will be close as will mallee (nat 24.8) in a 3 cornered contest against the libs but the seats shouldn’t change. All other seats won’t change.
The senate is interesting with the dlp, family first, the greens, palmer, for the last two seats the libs won’t get 4 in this state. This will be very close but labor and libs will get 2 each without trouble.
Prediction Lower house labor 20 lib 15 nat 2
Prediction upper house labor 2 lib 3 grn 1
Harrison’s world 