Three cornered country’s and the history of one lib mp

Two things to talk  about now.   firstly,  three cornered contests happen when a lib or nat retires and then they can both run in the seat.  As I mentioned the focus this time is on mallee (nat 24.8) as in 93 the nats held on but this will be tougher as since than the libs took the next door seat murray (lib 19.8) off the nats in 96. on that trend it will be close. the rules are that the incumbents can’t be challenged by a member of the party but some are wastes such as this election in throsby (alp 12.3).  Others have proven to be shocks such as a lib succeeding Tim Fischer in farrer (lib 13.7) And Alby Shultz in Hume (lib 8.7)in 98.  The last time the nats won a seat off the libs regurlaly was in 2010 but it wasn’t a three cornered contest in o’connor (nat 3.6 v lib).  It, durack and barker and any other seats in wa and sa aren’t three cornered. This could create a mess in corangamite (alp 0.3) at this election. The libs did a deal to ensure they keep hume and Gilmore with the nats getting a free go at New England and lyne, and other seats were involved in the deal. The other thing I am talking about is fran bailey former member for mcewen who did two things in her last term, she won a recount in her seat – this can be called for if the result is close,none were called for in 2010, but the big thing is how by being absent it was one of two reasons turnbull lost his job as opposition leader.  This and slipper voting made the difference, it would have been a draw of the hat otherwise. Lastly the last time a very senior minister was defeated or ex-senior minister was Bass in 1975, but this doesn’t count prime minister or party leaders such as John Howard or Charles Blunt.