election preview qld 2019

today i am giving you a preview of the next australian federal election starting with qld which has 30 seats is the most northern state and the least city centric with brisbane only having 40% of the population it used to be the quickest growing state in terms of seats with between 1993 and 2010 6 seats where created they include some of the most critical seats to the election with them being 4 of the 6 marginal starting from the top of the state is the seat of leichardt (lib 3.9) held by long time gay marrige advocate warren enstch around cairns who held the seat from 1996-2007 and since 2010 he is a popular member and should hold on elida faith is the labor candidate. in the bush between cairns and townsvile is the maverick seat of kennedy (kap 10.6 vs nats) held by bob katter jnr since 1993 and his dad was the nats member from 1966-90 this is a rural area that used to always vote labor and at state level was still a stronghold as recently as 2009 but as gone conservative bob katter would be favourite despite almost losing in 2013 with the government on the nose, bob katter should hold on. herbert (alp 0.02) is the most marginal seat in the country at the last election labors cathy o’toole is without one nation preferences and could fall but would still boost her primary vote in townsvile. dawson (nats 3.4) around mckay is held by the lower houses biggest maverick in qld george christensen who became so unpredictable it will be a tight contest and may survive the trend due to coal minning maybe hurting labor. capricornia (nats 0.6) is the nats most marginal seat but michelle laundry buckled the trend last time and held the seat in a close contest labor have a long history around rockhampton (where the seat is based) and will probabally regain it). Flynn (nats 1.0) was almost lost by the incumbent ken o’dowd will probabally swing to labor at least in gladstone otherwise the bush will be closer. maranoa (nats 15.9 vs onp) is a long held nats seat now held by agriculutre minister david littleproud in his first term one nation is a big threat in the seat labors preferences will be key especially if the nats vote drops. hinkler (nats 8.4) looks beyond labors reach despite being won twice by labor in the hawke era. wide bay (nats 8.2) should be safer with the incumbement seeking a second term). fairfax (lib 10.9) is safe even if clive palmer trys again. fisher (lib 9.2) also looks secure without the ashby v slipper fake saga around the sunshine coast. Longman (alp 0.8) should be labor held after holding it at the by election with an increased margin. bowman (lib 7.1) is a seat that swings widly should still be held by andrew laming). bonner (lib 3.4) is a interesting seat it was the safest labor seat lost in 2010 ross vasta though should just hold on). petrie (lib 1.6) buckled the trend last time and could again but unlikely. Liley (alp 5.7) should be held without wayne swans personal vote. moreton (alp 4.0) is now secure labor. Griffith (alp 1.4) may be an upset. brisbane (lib 6.0) may be out of labors reach. oxley (alp 9.0) is secure rankin (alp 11.3) is very strong blair (alp 8.1) is now way out of liberal range. forde (lib 0.6) is looking really tight. Dickson (lib 1.7) is looking doubtful for peter dutton. ryan (lib 9.0) is much closer with the loss of a liberal woman. the other seats groom (lib 15.3) wright (lib 7.4) fadden (lib 11.2) mcpherson (lib 11.6) and moncrieff (lib 14.6 although with the retirement of steve chobo) are secure.
senate
conservative nats (if they get away with it) are running fraser anning.
labor presumable are running chris kelter and claire moore again.
greens are running lorisa waters.
one nation are running malcolm roberts the lnp are running paul scarr and susan mcdonald both incumbents are dropped.
labor and lnp should get two seats the last two seats are between greens and 3 labor the other one is between anning and one nation and possibly the lnp and palmer and katter are outside chances.