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Two things to talk  about now.   firstly,  three cornered contests happen when a lib or nat retires and then they can both run in the seat.  As I mentioned the focus this time is on mallee (nat 24.8) as in 93 the nats held on but this will be tougher as since than the libs took the next door seat murray (lib 19.8) off the nats in 96. on that trend it will be close. the rules are that the incumbents can’t be challenged by a member of the party but some are wastes such as this election in throsby (alp 12.3).  Others have proven to be shocks such as a lib succeeding Tim Fischer in farrer (lib 13.7) And Alby Shultz in Hume (lib 8.7)in 98.  The last time the nats won a seat off the libs regurlaly was in 2010 but it wasn’t a three cornered contest in o’connor (nat 3.6 v lib).  It, durack and barker and any other seats in wa and sa aren’t three cornered. This could create a mess in corangamite (alp 0.3) at this election. The libs did a deal to ensure they keep hume and Gilmore with the nats getting a free go at New England and lyne, and other seats were involved in the deal. The other thing I am talking about is fran bailey former member for mcewen who did two things in her last term, she won a recount in her seat – this can be called for if the result is close,none were called for in 2010, but the big thing is how by being absent it was one of two reasons turnbull lost his job as opposition leader.  This and slipper voting made the difference, it would have been a draw of the hat otherwise. Lastly the last time a very senior minister was defeated or ex-senior minister was Bass in 1975, but this doesn’t count prime minister or party leaders such as John Howard or Charles Blunt.

Today another two topics. first of all rural independents. these have existed on and off since the federation when a independent won capricornia in Queensland.  Since then they have been there on and off. No rural independents have made history until Peter Andren was elected, he was one of the first to fight off the nats in his seat of Calare.  Around that time three new state mps Tony Windsor, rob oakshott, and Richard Torbay all had their own history. Windsor was disendorsed by the nats in the 91 election at state level but he went to be one of the most interesting federal independents in New England by supporting labor in the hung parliament,as did oakshott who was a state nat til 02 who then became a state independent then a federal one winning lyne, he also backed labor. Richard Torbay was a rural independent who became a nat candidate but lost pre-selection as there are rumours that has linked to the obeid problem. Bob katter also fits this category as a nat turned independent turned into his own party. The other interesting topic came up when I found labor ahead in greenway which is a marginal alp seat.  The last time this happened that a party held a seat under 1% was in sa at federal election in 98.  This means that the pendulum doesn’t mean much in some cases.

My last preview in the state profile is of Victoria,  where I live.  Once a strong conservative state now has two more conservative seats than wa.  This state has some potential for both parties but the replacement of Gillard will hurt labor most in this state with the question being how close it will be.

the first seat to watch is Melbourne (grn 5.9 v alp) the greens only lower house seat this will be hurt by liberal preferences now going to labor, but brandt is popular and won’t go down easy. batman (alp v grn 7.5) won’t change despites ferguson’s retirement. For the libs there are a few chances, deakin (alp 0.6) where the redistribution will hurt will change now. Latrobe (alp 1.6) also looks gone for labor as does corangamite (alp 0.3) gillards departure will hurt them. If labor holds Latrobe and deakin then Aston (lib 1.0) and casey (lib 1.8) could go labor with just a small swing. Two shadow ministers have problems. Bruce billson dunkley (lib 1.2) is a swing seat. Sophie Mirabella in indi (lib 9.0) is under threat by an independent and could be a very close battle against my relative Cathy McGowan (no I’m not biased but she is very good). The seats of Chisholm (alp 5.8) will be close as will mallee (nat 24.8) in a 3 cornered contest against the libs but the seats shouldn’t change. All other seats won’t change.

The senate is interesting with the dlp, family first, the greens, palmer, for the last two seats the libs won’t get 4 in this state. This will be very close but labor and libs will get 2 each without trouble.

Prediction Lower house labor 20 lib 15 nat 2
Prediction upper house labor 2 lib 3 grn 1

Today I am talking about the big state of nsw.  This state is the biggest state in seats but has lost several seats in recent years being Lowe and gwydir. no change to boundaries this time.

The big battle ground is west sydney, one of these seats lyndsay (alp 1.1) where polls see the libs taking it easily despite a comment this week about their candidate. Greenway (alp 0 9) is the states most marginal and should easily fall. Banks (alp 1.4) Reid (alp 2.7) would likely fall for the first time in a long time.  The swing could get worse and then parramatta (alp 4.4) and McMahon (alp 7.8) are risky seats while traditional seats werriwa (alp 6.8) and Watson (alp 9.1) and fowler (alp 8.8) could go but the last two should not fall.  neither should chifley (alp 12.3) and blaxland (alp just less).

Outside of Sydney Robertson (alp 1.0) and dobell (alp/ind 5.1) are gone. Labor has three rural seats and page (alp 4.2) and Eden monaro (alp 4.2) are close but despite mike Kelly’s promotion probably won’t hold and will go with government as usual, but page should stay as should Richmond (alp 7.0) labor’s other under threat seats  in Sydney are Barton (alp 6.9) and kingsford smith (alp 5.1) while labor has to fight the greens in Sydney (alp 18.5) and graydler (alp 4.7 v grn) make them no certainty. Labor might get Macquarie (lib 1.3) the ex litmus test seat (currently Eden-Monaco) mcarthur (lib 3.0) while labor’s only rural hope is Gilmore (lib 5.3).  It would take a big labor win for benelong (lib 3.1) and Patterson (lib 5.3) to change but no change likely for the conservatives in Hughes, parkes, Calare, riverina, Hume, cook, north sydney, warringah, berorwa, Mitchell, Bradford, mckellar, Cowper, farrer. Hume might possibly have changed with a nat candidate while Cowper would be a unlikely change. Labor should hold their 4 hunter region and 2 Illawarra seats. New England is interesting as Barnaby Joyce is trying to move to the lower house but may still be challenged by their original candidate Richard Torbay, we will know later today, otherwise he still win. Lyne should return to the nats after Oakshott.

The senate should see 2 libs and a nat an 2 alp.  For the libs to gain a majority in the senate this would be their last chance on a 4th seat if Queensland and wa succeed, but the odds are against it. The last spot would either be the first green or the third alp candidate

Prediction lower house labor 18 liberal 24 nat 6
Prediction upper house labor 2 nat 1 lib 2 greens 1

Another preview, this time for the northern territory.  The NT for a long time only had one seat until 2001 when the seat was split in two into Solomon (Darwin based) and lingiari (everything else) this state has both seats that can go either way and sometimes in a opposite trend to other states.

Labor’s strong seat is lingiari (alp 3.7) held by former member for the original seat, warren snowdon (no relation to Edward) this seat hasn’t yet been lost by labor and has a CLP (national) candidate with little local knowledge and didn’t know much about the Alice, but it had a swing against labor at the state election. The other seat Solomon (lib 1.7) is a swing seat and could go back to labor if the polls go according to plan but it does benefit the libs having an incumbent.  It didn’t swing much at state level.

The questions are on the senate with trish crossin retiring for labor and is replaced controversially by nova Peris.  Never has these senate seats been won by a minor party and this could change with the greens one day but unlike ACT as very different and won’t change while nigel scullion is safely there  in any case.

Prediction lower house lib 1 alp 1
Prediction upper house nat 1 alp 1

Another preview this time in qld. This state with 30 seats is the fastest growing state since 93.  This is the second election without a new seat (first being 01) this state is labor’s worst traditionally in 75 they held only oxley in 96 only held Brisbane and rankin.  In 98 labor did so badly they handed the libs the new seat of Blair but regained Dickson, Lilley, Griffith, bowman, oxley and capricornia they also gained Ryan in a by election in 01 but the vote has gone backwards losing Dickson and Ryan in 01 and bonner and bowman (which than was a notional lib seat ) in 04. labor got to 15 seats under Rudd and up to 17 after a redistribution but are back to 8 seats but a lot of interest in if rudd’s comeback will effect the election.

The first two labor seats to watch are Petrie (alp 2.5) and Morton (alp 1.1) both were lib seats going into 07 but both lacked the candidate last time as the member for petrie moved to the seat of Brisbane (lib 1.13) which was held by labor since 1980 but was a shock change last time.  The candidate for Moreton also has big shoes to fill.  Brisbane would be the first to go if Rudd won. Lilley (alp 3.2) has issues in that ex treasurer Wayne swan damaged the economy.  It was the libs biggest target until the leadership change but now the focus is on the prime ministers seat of Griffith (alp 8.5) labor’s only non marginal seat and Abbott has been campaigning second hardest in that, but it won’t change.
Capricornia (alp  3.7) is marginal without an incumbent so could easily fall. Labor’s seats in the south of Brisbane oxley (alp 5.8) and rankin (alp 5.4) where Emerson is retiring are long shots for the libs. Blair (alp 4 2) can go either way if the libs win but would stay alp if they win. due to the labor voting area of Ipswich.

The conservatives only have a long history in 6 of their 20 seats wright, maranoa McPherson and fadden, groom and moncrieff.  These and wide bay can’t fall to labor and while the Katter and palmers parties could make it interesting.  The seats to watch are Flynn (nat 3.5) where labor has their strongest state seat (not held by them though I meant v lnp) could go either way. Dawson (nat 2.4) is a three way contest after.close fight of three parties. Two safe seats fairfax (lib  6.9) and hinkler (nat 10.4) both with popular incumbents retiring and could be a big swing and with Clive palmer’s own party make it tough. Fisher (lib/ind 4.1 v alp) is a tough call but with the long awaited match up of slipper v brough labor has a chance. brough’s old seat longman (lib 2.6) is a swing seat and can fall to labor against the parliament’s youngest mp.    Leichart (lib 4.6) and Herbert
(lib 2.1) are two other ones that it could go three ways. In Brisbane Dickson (5.1) is more secure but is still a threat. Bowman (lib 10.4) has the margin inflated but will hold. Bonner (lib 2.8) can go either way as can forde (lib 1.6) with Peter Beattie as a candidate. Ryan (lib 7.2) is no chance for Labor. No change in Bob Katter’s seat of  Kennedy (KAP 18.3 v nat)

As with the senate the libs and nats need four seats between them and to replace Boswell and Boyce. labor also needs to replace Hogg.  katter and palmer will fight the greens for the last seat. Conservatives will get 3 and labor 2. Labor can win the third if it goes well.

Prediction lower house labor 11 liberal 14 nat 3 KAP 2
Prediction upper house labor 2 lib 2 nat 1 KAP 1

Next I am going to look at the key state of Tasmania this state has a history of one sided results with no libs elected in 98, 01, 07 or 2010 but has seen the same result for labor in 75-87 when labor regained Denison.  It has always been entitled to 5 seats regardless of population.

This election looks to be the return of the libs to the lower house. the first seat to watch is bass (alp 6.7) which looks to get another new mp.  Polling had the libs winning on primary vote alone but after Rudd took over the race it has tightened but it is highly unlikely to be held. Braddon (alp 7.5) is also under major threat as it was lost in 04, this seat was held by labor 4 out of 5 elections like bass, but is very vulnerable. The third seat to watch is Denison (ind 1.2 v alp) both labor and the greens want Wilkie gone but as an incumbent it should be an interesting race.  If the swing against Labor gets too much then franklin (alp 10.8) and Lyons (alp 12.3) could be under threat but that would be improbable.

With the senate the libs need a third seat which would come at the expense of labor.  This is the only state where the greens won’t lose a seat, but to get to 42.9% is no easy task. Since the last election there was a change in labor senators but that effects 2016 not this election. The battle for the last seat will be the big focus.

Prediction lower house labor 2 lib 2 ind 1
Prediction senate labor 2 lib 3 green 1

Another preview this time for the 15 seat state of wa (western Australia).

The state has been a strong liberal state federally for a long time with the last labor majority at the 2001 redistribution, but hasn’t held a majority at a Federal election for a long time and hold only 3 seats which is less than the amount of senators. The libs hold 11 with one nat. This makes the wa state election important where labor lost 7 seats but regained the state seat of fremantle.

Labor’s most marginal seat is Brand (alp 3.9) this seat had always been labor even in 96 when then Beazley moved there.and has only nearly been lost once.  It wasn’t affected by the state swing.  Then there is Beazley’s old seat Swan (lib 2.5) which was lost in 07 and 10 (after redistribution) after labor won it back but could go back if labor do well at the election but this area went against labor at state level so it is unlikely. Next door Hasluck (lib 0.6) is very marginal and since its creation has never elected an incumbent and is held by Australia’s first indigenous Federal MP but also is north of the swan river and might just stay lib. Perth (alp 5.9) has had a roller coaster unholdable under Gillard was likely to be held under Rudd until Smith retired making it vunerable, and then labor preselected a former state minister and most successful candidate in terms of swing towards them at the last election, but it will have the location problem.  Fremantle (alp 5.7) hasn’t been lost since the 30s and is completely out of the libs
reach since Rudd took over as under Gillard labor could still have held it as the location favours labor. Don Randall won’t lose again in Canning (lib 2.2) as there is no popular candidate this time against him and despite losing popular judi moylan Pearce (lib 8.9) wouldn’t change without a nat swing, but even that shouldn’t beat former wa treasure christian porter. Cowan (lib 9.5) the other seat labor lost in 07 won’t go back. The two rural seats Durack (lib 13.7) and OConnor (nat 3.6 v lib) are very hard seats with both incumbents retiring and are fought out between the libs and nats.  No chance of change in Forrest, Moore, curtin, tangey and Stirling won’t leave the lib fold.

The senate is where the libs need 4 seats to get into a senate majority situation. both parties lose a senator with former labor leader chris Evans (not related) and Alan eagleton. (Lib senator who is retiring) the greens senator Scott Ludlum is under threat but if the vote falls below 42.9% the three quota amount makes it hard to recover. the nats also hope for a senate seat which may be a difference in this state

Prediction lower house labor 3 liberal 11 nat 1
Prediction senate lib 3 labor 2 green 1

Now I’ll look at the ACT the first of the two territories and on history it has benefited labor.

The seat of fraser has been held by labor since 1974 when it was created, the seat of Canberra has only been in liberal hands twice 1975-80 and 1995-96. the old seat of ACT which preceded it always benefited labor and the seat of namadgi (question on spelling) which existed in 96 and abolished in 98 on the pendulum. Canberra is the more marginal (alp 9.1%) which is beyond even if the landslide predicted against Gillard over the public servants cuts.  The liberals expect Fraser (alp 14.2) despite the name of the other seat is always been safe Labor and is well out of liberals reach being an entirely metropolitan territory means there is no National party making it a Labor v Liberal contest with the greens coming third. 

This should stay the same in the lower house but the senate pulls an interesting scenario with popular senator gary Humphries losing his pre selection to act liberals opposition leader Zed Vazeldua (third job in a year) who brought the last election to a tie with the one green giving labor government and he faces a tough challenge from a popular green candidate.  But for the libs vote to fall below a third the quota required for a seat looks unlikely and even then the greens would hope the libs don’t get many preferences and still have to beat the second labor candidate the incumbent labor senator kate lundy should hold on easy. There is no word of a bullet train party candidate (not the name) in this state despite discussion.

prediction lower house labor 2
prediction upper house labor 1 liberal 1 
next i’ll cover western Australia

welcome to my political opinion site ‘political posturing’!

I am beginning with a preview for the election on September 7 state by state.  For those who are interested I am a labor backer but I will try to be impartial.

I will start with the state of south Australia. There has been 11 seats since Boothbyon was abolished in 2004, leaving labor with only one safe seat in Port Adelaide.  The loss of Adelaide in the 90s made sa with fewer seats in fact in 2004 going in with only Port Adelaide and Kingston with incumbents but also had wakefield.   Post redistribution both Kingston and wakefield were lost in 04 but regained in 07 but labor gained Adelaide back and Hindmarsh both won for the first time since bob hawke was prime minister. Labor also gained Makin in 07 and came short in Boothby and Sturt which remained unchanged in 2010 with Labor sharply increasing their margins in their seats making Port Adeliade labor’s safest non-Victorian seat and making Kingston the next safest seat in the state and securing their hold on Makin.

Despite that polls indicate labor may go backwards indeed without marginal seats the interest will be on Adelaide (ALP 7.5) and Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1) the most marginal seats in the state both have high profile mps. but I was in the electorate of Adeliade recently and there is no small presence of liberal posters. If the polls go the opposite way Boothby (Lib 0.6) which may change anyway without a swing to the coalition in the seat since the incumbent came in and Sturt (Lib 3.6) which has Chris Pyne still not safe. If the swing gets big then Wakefield (alp 10.5) could be under threat and labor may be in trouble in Kingston (alp 14.6) and Makin (alp 12.1)  but both seats look out of the liberals reach on the margin. Labor should easily hold Port Adeliade and the Libs should hold Mayo and Grey the question is can the nats challenge the libs in barker (lib 13.7) which wasn’t contested by the nats in the last election but after they handed labor state government it might not be that easy.

The senate has four of the six incumbent senators.  Interesting Penny Wong after going behind the back of Gillard, who was from this state, is benefitted from being number one but if people vote below the line there may be a backlash against her. Independent Xenophon should hold on the same vote but may face the back lash against Independents generally. Hansen young would be the Greens only hope but if the polls continue she has little chance and Bernardi should overcome the horrible comments he’s made as he is first on the Lib ticket and it is hard to get votes from below the line candidate (although I have a few friends who like him).

ACT later today.

prediction overall lower house labor 6, liberal 5
prediction upper house liberal 3 labor 2 independent 1