Harrison’s world

Two new contestants this time Jenny vs Aaron is today’s match up which should be good

Today I am looking at Capricornia the marginal seat which could be turnbulls seat that is like Gillard/rudds corrangimite upset at the first win of under 1% and was held at the next election. This seat as the Making of this especially if shorten wins the next election a long labor held seat before 2013 held by former pm Frank forde 1922-46 and former state labor leader Keith Wright 1984-93 who became independent before he was defeated Kirsten living more 1998-2013 she retired and was succeeded by Nats mp Michelle laundry who held it in 2016 the seat is another adani strong seat which will play a roll but has long voted labor at state level they held one of only 7 seats at the 2012 State election.

Chris’s last episode sees him against Alan in what should be a good match we hope

Chris is back for night 5 against Jason Stockdale this time

Episode 4 sees Chris on night 4 take on Chaitanya.

episode 3 sees chris back for his third night taking on helen.
round 1  M A R I L E H S O
shore, morale,
me: morale
chris: holier
helen: holers (invalid)
best: armholes, moralise
me 6 chris 6 helen 0
round 2 A U R N Q E C T A
turn, 
me: turn
chris: trance
helen: nectar
best: racquet 
me 6 chris 12 helen 6 
round 3 4 6 8 6 25 50 316
50 plus 4 = 54 times 6 = 324 – 8 = 316
me 316
chris: 50 times 6 = 300 + 8 + 6 = 314
helen: invalid 
best: 6 x 50 = 300 + 8 x (6 – 4) = 316
me 16 chris 12 (19) helen 6
 word mix nun pride (Support from underneath)
underpin 
round 4  I E D F O N K U R
founder, 
me: founder 
chris: founder 
helen: invalid 
best: funkier 
me 23 chris 19 (26) helen 6
round 5  D E L E S D O N A
loaned, 
me: loaned
chris: moaned (invalid)
helen: leased
best: deadens 
me 29 chris 19 (26) helen 12
round 6 5 7 100 50 75 25 856
100 + 25 = 125 x 7 = 875 – (75 – 50 – 5) = 855
me: 855
chris: 75 x (7 + 5) = 900 – 50 = 850 + 100/25 = 854
Helen: invalid 
best: 5 + 75/25 = 8 x (100 + 7) = 856
me 36 chris 19 (33) helen 12
word mix drape joy (your at risk of missing this one)
jeporady
round 7 N E M A S L O W E
awesome, 
me: awesome
chris and helen: women
best: awesome
me 43 chris 19 (38) helen 12 (17) 
round 8 8 10 6 4 75 100 157
100 + 75 – 10 – 8 = 157
me: 157
chris: 157 same method
helen: 159
best: 157
me 53 chris 29 (48) helen 12 (17)
connundrum DENTED FAN
me: no idea
helen: defendant 
me 53 chris 29 (48) helen 22 (27)
chris won 48 to 27 
me: 53

episode 2 this time chris the defending champ takes on nick.
round 1 S N E L I T O M U
listen, moisten, mounts, 
me: moisten 
chris: moulten (invalid)
nick: stolen
best: outlines
me: 7 chris 0 nick 0 (6) 
round 2 R A B A T E C O W
abort, 
me: abort
chris: boater
nick: barter (invalid)
best: boatrace
me 7 chris 6 (6) nick 0 (6)
round 3 4 8 3 6 25 100 744
100 + 25 – (4 – 3) times 6 = 744
me: 744
chris: 100 times 8 – 25 – 3 – 4 times 6 = 748
nick: 737 
best: 744
me 17 chris 6 (13) nick 0 (6)
word mix girl dock (tends to happen at peek hour)
gridlock 
round 4  R A R E T E S Y F
rarest, feaster, yeast, 
me: feaster
chris: faster
nick: steer
best: ferrates
me: 24 chris 6 (19) nick 0 (6) 
round 5  S C E A G B O E T
beast, boats, stage, 
me: beast
chris: begets
nick: begets
best: goatees
me: 24 chris 12 (25) nick 6 (12)
round 6 1 10 9 7 25 50 375
50 x 7  = 350 + 25 =375 
50 + 25 = 75 times 7 – 1 – (10 – 9) = 375 
me: 375
chris: first method
nick: nothing 
best: 375
me 34 chris 22 (35) nick 6 (12)
word mix 
oven peel (something other than words that contain letters)
envelope 
round 7 H N U I V A I D O
avoid
me: avoid
chris: hound
nick: invade (invalid)
best: divan
me 39 chris 27 (40) nick 6 (12)
round 8 7 6 10 9 50 100 708
100 + (10 – 9) times 7 = 707
me: 707
chris: 100 times 7 = 700 + 9 = 709
nick: 100 times 7 = 700 + 9 = 709
best:  7x(100-6) = 658 + 50 = 708
me 46 chris 34 (47) nick 13 (19)
round 9 AVERSE POD
me: no idea 
chris and nick no idea
answer: eavesdrop 
chris 47 to 19 win
me 46

this blog is me putitng my rounds from the tv show letters and numbers on a blog compared to the best and the contestants. The matchups on the post title are the ones from the show. ep 1 is chris shoulten smith vs elaine miles. These will be in the order.

round 1: T O L I N E G S I
toiling, ignites. 
me: toiling
chris: toiling
elaine: toilings (best)
score: me 0 chris 0 elaine 8
round 2 A O M R T U I Y E
merit, timer, 
me: timer
chris: matier (invalid)
elaine: retoy (invalid)
best: muritae
score me 5 chris 0 elaine 8 
round 3 557 7 5 9 2 75 100
75-2=73×9 = 657 – 100 = 557 
me: 557
chris and elaine 5 times 100 + 75 – 9×2 = 557
score me 15 chris 10 elaine 18 
word mix ART RADIO (Heats your house but cools your car)
Radiator 
round 4  E R A O R C A E W
wearer, roarer
me: wearer 
chris: cower
elaine: racer 
best: wearer
score me 21 chris 10 (15) elaine 18 (23)
round 5 F A B E S O T U E
boast, beast about, obtuse
me: obtuse
chris: boast
elaine: beast
best: obtuse
me 27 chris 10 (20) elaine 18 (28)
round 6 7 4 25 50 75 100 750
100 x 7 = 700 + 50 = 750 
50 x (7 + 4) = 550 + 100 + 75 + 25 = 750 
me: 750
chris: my first method 
elaine: missed it 
score me 37 chris 20 (30) elaine 18 (28) 
word mix cast pail
capitals 
round 7 K A F G E I A C S
cafes. fakes, fascia, 
me: fascia
chris and elaine fakes
best: fasciae 
me 43 chris 20 (35) elaine 18 (33)
round 8 5 4 7 8 50 25 781
50 + 25 – 5 x (7 + 4) = 770 + 8 = 778
50 + 25 – 8 + 5 x (7 + 4) = 792 
me 778
chris and elaine nothing
best: 25 x 8 – 50 + 7 times 5 = 785 – 4 = 781 
me 50 chris 20 (35) eliane 18 (33)
conndrum jelly were 
me jewelery 
chris jewelery
me 60 chris 30 (45) elaine 18 (33)
chris won 45 to 33
my score 60

Herbert is a ultra marginal labor seat that used to litmess test until 2007  it was won by labor’s ted Lindsey in 1983 who lost to peter Lindsay in 1996 (no relation) who held on in 2007 against. A high profile labor candidate he was succeeded by Ewen jones in 2010 who had to overcome a redistribution in labor’s favour he held on in 2013 but in an upset lost to labor’s Cathy o’toole By only 31 votes last time making it the mOst marginal seat in the country it is also note worthy that the greens finished 5th on primaries and a strong one nation vote. Labor needed to come form behind last time on prefeeences pulled ahead now the question is can they raise their vote enough in an Adani area where the mine will hurt labor due to them opposing it. The libs recent comments on coal to be fair might make it More balanced (although it was their state leader). On a side note it was the only seat contested by Palmer United (they came last) at the last election. It is the only labor seat in qld not in Brisbane except possibly Longman which is just out of it. The Townsville based seat will be critterical to the election but at this stage it will be close
Prediction narrow alp hold

Welcome back

This blog will be a history of amazing race episode by episode the way the show works will be explained as we go 

Continuing our look in the outer Sydney area and I am looking at the Penrith area seat of Lyndsey won in 2013 by Fiona Scott of the Libs this seat is part of western Sydney but never has had a opposition mp and the only election an opposition mp

Continuing our look at previewing electorates today i am writing about Ben chifleys old seat of mcquerie a seat that for a long time was marginal although prior to the dismissal was Labor leaning and since 84 has been more liberal held except 93 (when labor won it in the nsw landslide at the federal election) and 07 (when a crazy redistribution made it w more rural seat) unlike most seats on the outskirts of Sydney this seat has some rural categoristics but is still a semi-urban seat held since 2010 by liberal mp Louise Markus who we assume will be running again she also represented greenway from 2004-2010

Continuing our trip towards Sydney we are looking at Robertson a marginal Centeral coast seat having gone with the goverenment since 1983 Making it the second longest litness test seat. The seat has seen three new MPs in three elections and is held by Lucy wicks of the liberal party with the ex-labor mp deb o’Neal now a senator the seat played a big roll in the return of the labor goverenment in 2010.

Dobell is a marginal seat that has long been a battleground since 2001 has been a litness test seat but before that was labor held and could easily go back to it against the trend Craig Thompson held the seat from 2007 to 2013 as a controversial mp Karen McNamara won the seat for the Libs last time but the redistribution has given labor a slim margin and should be labor held.

Another safe labor seat that has been involved in controversy since 1949 labor haven’t lost it the seat Chang by pat Conroy will make it a seat that won’t be recon tested by Jill hall labor mp since 98 . 

A safe labor seat since federation the only seat labor has never lost in fact in the last 80 years it has never been a marginal seat. the seat survived a strong liberal challenge from someone with the name Abbott last time and expect a swing to labor

This is the old seat of Charlton which was renamed hunter after the abolished seat both were long labor held seats with hunter not being lost since 1910. Charlton never being lost since it’s creation in 84. Joel Fitzgibbon has switched Seats to here instead of contesting Paterson which covers the old hunter and should have no trouble.

The safest nats seat since 07 was first contested in 84 the seat has only had four nats MPs it was closest to being won labor in 93 when labor falsely claimed victory in the seat. Still a safe seat the addition of broken hill has changed the seat into a slightly less safe seat.

A long time safe nats seat is now a interesting seat while labor have only won it once 1961 the seat is located between safe nats territory and swing territory so it could easily change the biggest inclusion is port Macquarie in the recent redistribution from Lyne the seat is held by an ex Abbott and Turnbull minister Luke hurtsukyer who is still contesting the seat 

A safe nats seat that hasn’t always been that way first contested in 1949 the seat was nats held until 2008 when rob oakshott won a by-election as an independent. On his retirement in 2013 the nats won it back the seat was really tight in 93 between the Libs and the nats

After the state election and the nats drop in support this seat is anyone’s guess having been held by labor since 04 the growing greens presence will make it interesting while the nats aren’t giving up hope. The Libs though if they run will beat the nats 

Today I am talking about the marginal north coast seat of page first contested in 1984 as a safe nats seat since 1990 has gone with the goverenments won in 2007 by Jeanette saffin of labor who will be recon testing against Kevin hogan the current nats mp since 2013. A tough contest with a correction expected from last time but judging on the swing it could go either way.

Today i am talking about the division of Calare the safe nats seat that wasn’t always safe almost an original seat this seat has long been marginal as labor won it 1983-96 and the nats won it since 07 in the gap an independent won it Peter Andren. The nats incumbent is retiring John Cobb member for Parkes 01-07 before switching to Calare is now retiring while this isn’t currently a marginal seat Cobbs personal vote will be a big loss that and a correction to labor might make a difference Cobbs personal vote was so big that the swing against him in 07 in a much more different Calare of 0.1% his loss of the agriculture department after Joyce switched houses another thing to consider is that the parts of the old seat of hunter while not much migh help labor

New England is a odd seat not because labor have a high vote (last won it in 1910) but the area and the seat was an independent stronghold from a safe nats seat the federal seat was won by Tony Windsor from 01 to 2013. It was also won at a state level by three MPs especially Windsor and Richard Torbay (also an ex nats candidate) both never run as nats. Barnaby switch to New England and the hung parliament aftermath might make you think the area has gone to Ian Sinclair levels (member 1963 to 1998) but the independents haven’t gone in fact they have outpolled labor every election since Windsor was elected. Barnaby won’t be an easy beat but judging on history only one leader (truss) has had his seat still nats held dating back to pre-McEwen. This seat won’t be a strong labor seat even with the parts of hunter which may make a big  difference.

Welcome back I am begining a seat by seat preview with the marginals getting focus starting with Paterson a seat that was revealed in 93 had substational changes this time the seat was won by two people both with the name bob one a labor mp in 93 and 98 and bob Baldwin who won in 96 and held it since 2001. The seat was changed by the abolishment of hunter and the rumoured preference swap could come into effect however the Libs have the incumbent advantage as well as Joel Fitzgibbon moved to another seat (not yet announced) a marginal seat would likely have a correction to labor however the region correction was in the redistribution so the Libs will make it a contest this will be tight

Today’s electorate covered is lilly a marginal labor seat in Brisbane first contested in 1913 as mainly been labor held in recent times currently held by former treasurer Wayne swan since 98 and all but one term since 93 

While currently a safe liberal seat with any election coming up we will look at it the seat was once held by the country party in the 80s and 90s often by labor and until sadly recently by liberal don Randall who also represented swan from 96-98 who died now after a massive swing the seat is safe but for how long with labor running it will be close but the rest will be if labor can get someone

Today i am talking about Wakefield a seat known for a crazy history with speakers especially in the Howard era speaker the seat was changed substantially in 2004 and is now a labor held seat by nick champion a labor member treated badly by browywyn 

A very safe labor seat lalor was contested in 1949 at the expansion of the house it was held by two deaputy labor leaders one of which julia Gillard was pm currently held by Joanne Ryan of labor.

Safe conservative seat first contested in 1980’held by extreme maverick Wilson tuckey until 2010 when tony crook won it as a nat he made several decisions that went against the federal team as a cross bencher he retired last election and was successed by a man with the last name Wilson can’t think of his first name who is a lib 

today I am talking about the electorate of Dobell a marginal seat held by labor from 1984 to 2001 before the Libs won it than in 2007 a man named Craig Thomson won it who

From where I am now the only thing safe about this seat is that the greens have a very little shot and Palmer even less after 2013s state election labor is now a long shot to ever win here and the Libs v nats is the contest but as recently as 96 it was a labor held seat of kargollie now it is a safe conservative seat with a different name in 1920 kargollie member was thrown out of parliament the other significant thing was the Libs going from third to first in 98 in a election with a swing against them currently held by Michele price for the Libs 

Today I am taking about Maranoa the seat that is coalition held in qld and is very very safe originally a labor held seat the party has been held by the nats and its predecessors since 1943. Currently held by deaputy speaker Bruce Scott 

Today I am talking about McPherson a safe lnp held seat first contested in 1949 by former pm Arthur Fadden won it the seat was initially a nats seat but now is much more liberal held by two liberal woman in a row now Karen Andrews parliamentary secutary

One of the swing seats in recent times the seat considers of some of Geelong and the South west coast the seat was until recently a safe luberal

The once home of mirabella and an East west link the Libs donimance and a lot of former pms ,Menzies, holt, McEwen, Gorton, Fraser, Hawke and Gillard not to mention the home of Australia’s main sport and the Libs main up and comings frydenburg and odeyer and few main marginals Corangamite Deakin and Latrobe all look like labor gains at the moment and the closest labor seat McEwen which is close and mixed the senate won’t change as tradition and trend wth the exception of if madaigan retires can’t see him losing as an independent. Indi will stay independent

After years of losing seats can labor hold all three the answer is yes brand hasn’t ever been lost and free mantle has been labor hands since the 30s Perth not so long but with a popular local member should help labor’s best chance is Hasluck which at the moment is close swan would fall if the Libs lose incumbent the nats won’t get in unless the Libs lose an incumbent 

Tasmania swung the hardest against labor last Time and the question is can labor recover all polls indicate a swing that would win labor back Braddon and Lyons and bass is 50/50 the senate is crucial because of greens leader Christine Milne the only question is if willie retires who’d win Denison

Today I am talking about the act both seats are safe labor and the other question of the senate is looking like the greens will beat the Libs in an upset for  spot two

 After an more ballenced elevation last time the sa battle will be focused on Hindmarsh where the Libs won off labor in 2013 should regain boothsby the Libs most marginal going in to 2013 looks in trouble while Sturt could swing back heavily the senate will be another fight for the last seat with the greens holding their seat.

Today I am taking about what Queensland is at now this state is intriguing due to having two minor parties in the house of reps being Clive Palmer in Fairfax (most marginal seat in the country) and kennedy held by Katter. The fact is that if labor try hard enough on recent history could get 12 seats but that would require an astonishing swing. First let’s look at Brisbane the seat where labor probabally weren’t expected to lose in 2010 remained liberal last time it won’t take much to fall but a 4% margin puts it on edge. A gurrantied fall is Petrie held by Luke horswarth for the Libs under 1% and will likely to be the first to go. However the qld situation could easily reverse while labor looks secure in Oxley, rankin and Blair as well that Griffith has already been held at a by-election. Moreton and Lilley are vulnerable to a swing. Also in Brisbane that could fall is bonner where labor had their biggest swing to cost them a seat in 2010. Dickson and bowman could fall but would require a big swing now. Ryan is now safe. Outside of Brisbane labor could get forde back if they don’t re endorse Peter beatie. Capricornia should return to labor judging on there has been only one term  observations sin recent history. Hinkler is way out of labors reach while Flynn is vulnerable as is Dawson despite the kap demonising progress. Herbert and lichardit could fall as well but look out of reach. And the minor parties in b Kennedy and Fairfax are gone while Palmer’s candidate could win fisher with better preferences it looks unlikely. In the senate the question will be if the greens get back.

Today i am talking about Northern Territory the area has two seats Solomon which is ultra-marginal with labor almost certain to pick it up as it swing to labor at the last election. Lingiari is unpredictable and the territory election due just before will play a roll in expectations their. The senate would see the status quo maintained

Today i am talking about what i think an election if it was today would be starting with nsw an interning state in terms of marginals since 1963 nsw is the litmus test state only having a party win majority government with less seats in nsw in 1961 since the second world war. The most marginal seat in nsw is Barton a shock loss for labor last time the seat has swung over 15% in the last two elections but the seats marginal status keeps a prime target for labor a seat labor would almost certainly gain is page unless Kevin hogan could snap a run since -1990 of only goverenments members the seat is much more labor friendly although the swing was above trend last time another seats that would likely go with abbott are Lindsey and Robertson as well as the traditional one Eden-Monaro while labor has massive damage in Lindsey and Robertson both would be likely labor gains while Eden-Monaro has an unpredictable factor of being nearer to Canberra than Sydney. Labors long he seats of banks and Reid would be harder to region py sid of landslides unles the conservative experiment fails. Dobell if Craig Thomson has passed an easy labor gain but it would see how a second term member goes. The greens are still a chance in Sydney where If polls are accurate could pass the Libs and threaten labor grey ländler labor’s safest seat is almost a similar situation. For labor Paramata is their most vulnerable and would possibly fall weirawa on trend is close but labor will hold on same with Richmond. Hunter is the only contest the nats have a roll in that is interesting out of the coast and on trend will be close. The senate going in is three coalition (Libs/nats) 2 labor and 1 green while the liberal democrats won a seat it is improbable to continue at a other election. The third liberal seat as a close one with labor and unlikely some one like the liberal democrats would threat if the greens hold up will

Today I am talking about the division of Hindmarsh first contested when South Australia was single member electorates the seat was once a very-safe labor seat until 1993 when the former member for hawker won the seat for the Libs and held it till 04 when a contest saw a future liberal senator lose to labors Steve gorganous who held it till 2013 when was defeated by liberal matt willams. 

Today I am talking about the former litmus test seat first contested in 1949 This entirely a seat that has been pushed around South of weirawa the seat went with the Menzies, holt, Gorton, McMahon, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating and Howard governments all but two pms ever since the Libs won the seat since 07 currently held by Russell Matherson (no relation to Tim). 

The first territory electorate is Solomon the marginal seat first contested in 2001 when the labor held seat of the Northern Territory became two with a small liberal majority they lost it in 07 to labor but returned in 2010 the seat swung to labor in 2013 but was held natasha grigs is the member 

The seat of Brisbane is an urban seat in Brisbane since federation the seat is a labor leaning seat until 2010 the seat was lost a few times in history such as 75 the seat was held in 96 the member from 1990-2010 arch be is the Libs won in 2010 with Theresa granbro former member for Petrie from 96-07 and increased her majority 

Today i am talking about the seat of weirawa a labor held seat that between 1934 and 2010 only had members returned and changed at by elections and this is an indication recently the seat has leaned to labor and has been won by labor for a long time currently held by Laurier furgenson former member for Reid from 1990-2010 

Ok pToday I am talking about a once marginal rural unusual seat in nsw the seat was contested in 1901 under a different name the Seat covers areas west of Sydney labor and the nats dominantly held the seat with labor holding on during the Hawke and Keating goverenments and than fell to independent Peter Andren who held it until his death in 07 in which he was going to Abingdon it for The senate when a redistribution made the seat a safe nats seat the seat reverted in 2010 to it’s normal form but remained in the hands of John Cobb member for Parkes in 01-07 he was the biggest demotion in the election of abbott from shadow agriculurne to backbencher.

Not named after former treasure Wayne swan this west australian seat is marginal and was first contested in 1901 originally a rural seat and held by the country party including a weird labor win in 1918 the seat which meant preferential voting was introduced the seat was held by Kim beasly from 1980-96 for labor currently held by the Libs Steve irons since 2007 the only labor incumbent seat lost,

 With Out in rural northwest Queensland is this obscure seat of Kennedy long ago this rural seat was safe labor falling unusually in 1925 when a labor candidate died just before electing a conservative unopposed in 1966 the seat swung heavily and elected bob katter senior in the spirit of Victoria in 1990

Out in rural northwest Queensland is this obscure seat of Kennedy long ago this rural seat was safe labor falling unusually in 1925 when a labor candidate died just before electing a conservative unopposed in 1966 the seat swung heavily and elected bob katter senior in the spirit of Victoria in 1990

Out in rural northwest Queensland is this obscure seat of Kennedy long ago this rural seat was safe labor falling unusually in 1925 when a labor candidate died just before electing a conservative unopposed in 1966 the seat swung heavily and elected bob katter senior in the spirit of Victoria in 1990

Today I am talking about the greens held seat of Melbourne. Another original seat that was won by labor from 1904 (technically 1903 because of a disqualification but the rerun was in 1904) till 2010 until the greens ended labor’so 106 year hold on the safe seat author Caldwell the former op leader federally is the most famous member for the seat with Lyndsey tanner the finance minister under Rudd labor laws member before bhandt won after making the seat marginal in 2007. 

Today i am talking about the safe natitionals seat of Cowper a original north Coast nsw seat that has been a long time ago a part of the country party heart land now is still a safe seat but has much more marginal northern neighbours Richmond and page the seat has been mats and country hands since 1919 with one exception in 1961 when Earle page the longest single electorate member Hughes represented 4 lost to labor the nats won it back in 63 and increased it the seat looked like it could be lost in 2010 but a massive pro nats swing of 8.2% the member is Luke hurtsuyker the assistant minister for employment in the abbott government and deputy leader of the house.

today i am talking about the safe liberal seat of north sydney first contested in 1901 the seat is based on the north shore of sydney held by billy hughes as the most important member having a crazy history being member for the abolished seat of west sydney and bendigo later member for bradfield and former labor prime minister and than conservative prime minister and man who ended the bruce conservative goverenment the seat has been held by conservative party members all except ted mack in 1990-96 the seat was won by joe hockey on his retirement who is now treasure his first oppoent julie owens is member for paramatta currently since 2004 the seat was only close to falling in 07.

today i am talking about the division of wannon a safe liberal rural seat in victoria covering rural australia it is most important member was malcom fraser pm 1975-83  and long serving local member before that the seat was marginal now it has become a safe seat the current mp is dan tehan a member who has been known for his questions on foreign affairs he is also an alumni from my brothers school.

today i am looking at the division of bonner a qld seat which was contested in 2004 out of bowman mainly and griffith the seat had a labor majority but was won by ross vesta of the liberals the seat swung back to labor in 2007 and the opposite in 2010 and a small swing.in 2013 the facts are that the electorate is a swing seat being the saffest labor seat in 2010 to fall.

today i am talking about the division of oxley was created in 1949 there was a different seat from 1901-1934 but it was abolished the current seat is a marginal labor seat it was won by the libs in 1949-61 since than labor has only lost in 1996 to pauline hansen a diseendourced liberal the seat is now held by bernie ripoll for labor since 1998 the seat currently based on southern brisbane the seat used to cover ipswhich until the creation of blair in 98.

today i am talking about the seat of mcewen the seat was named after former prime minister john Mcewen member for echuca indi and murray in the past the seat is a marginal seat due to the part rural part metropolitian seat the metropolitian areas are strong labor while rural areas are more liberal the seat has swung several times first won by labor in 1984 the seat was picked up by the libs fran bailey in 1990 she lost in 1993 in another close contest and won it back in 96 until 2007 the seat was the closest in the contest with the libs holding on by 31 votes the next election saw labor win it in a 5.3% swing joining latrobe as labor’s two gains at the election. the redisribution saved labor in 2013 leaving it very marginal as well as neighbouring bendigo. The current member rob mitchell is second deputy speaker and former state mp.

the fact that a motion of no confidence against the member of frankston a marginal seat having been one of the marginals that gave balieu a majority the seat is now very marginal the truth is if the polls are correct then the winner of the by-election will be the goverenment if its the libs but if Labor wins the parliament ends up in a stalemate and a new election will have to occur this will likely bring down the goverenment the truth is this will be unheard of in terms of controversy. The next electorate is the perth based seat of stirling first contested in 1955 it was won against the run and was lost in 1958 but won back in 1961 the labor member harry webb was a suprise loss in 1972 against the run of labor’s election to goverenment the seats history of suprises stopped than and the libs held on till 83 and the seat was held until 1993 and than swaped at the three of the next four elections untill 2004 since than it has been increasing the libs margin to 10.3%R at the last election michael kennan the minister for justice is the member currently.

the speaker in the history of parliament is meant to be an independent and unbiased speaker in the last parliament the speaker in a case of over 100 versus 2 in throw outs is un heard of in terms  history in a short time another example is taking advice from the leader of the house this is partly because of the nomination also her biastness includes throwing out the member for herbert for an idiot comment about state opf origin. Also she uses terms in the parliamentry diary that are increditibally biast. the other topic is that liberals claim that joe hockey claimed a underbudget tax record from andrew fisher the former prime minitser who wasa also treasuer claimed 96% the record now held by the member for liley’s mining tax is appatently 97% indicates a fact that appartently 1% is meaning full statistically.
I am introducting individual articles on electorates first up is the marginal seat of Lyndsay a western sydney seat based on penrith in western sydney prior to 1996 the seat was a general western sydney seat held by a former member ross free the 96 election saw a suprise gain by the liberals Jackie Kelly who even went ahead this confirmed the seats litness test seat status the by election increased a majority her retirement in 2007 went wide in the fact that a very racist protest by the former member’s husband this among other things saw labor regain the seat by former assistant treasurer david bradbury who held in 2010 despite the famous rsl club speech one of the things on the carbon tax the following election saw the seat again get focus when fiona scott the at the time liberal candidate made comments about refuggees and traffic jams plus a different comment by now prime minister abbott about sex appeal the seat was the only pure western sydney to fall at the last election.

this article is on the commision of audit considered by many that these recemondations if implemented would be breaking promises the truth is that a few aren’t but the majority are such as changes to superannuation the pension cuts to the australia network (through abc), gonski, health. Anymore that we don’t know about are agreed the debt text is considered one as well is not part of the audit but is a suggestion that goes against the no new tax promise.

the wa senate election recently resulted in an unusual situation where the government and opposition had swings against them this resulted in a unusual situation a big surprise was the greens with a quota in their own right labor’s controversial joe bullock won a seat while the libs won two on primaries palmer’s candidate won the fifth seat on preferences turning the last seat into a labor/liberal contest early forcasts had labor over the libs but a late improvement for the libs have seen them win the seat easily by 0.04 of a quota.
result alp 1 lib 3 grn 1 pup 1 

Independents have in recent times struggled to buck the goverenment trend so this will be a big test on them but I still think they’ll have a chance if they keep results similar to Andren and Torbay and may hold balance of power.

The South australian election is soon and the question is how would labor hang on?   polls had 54-46 which is more than enough, but if marginals don’t swing much or not at all then labor would also need their safe seats to go well to survive, so a 2.5% swing and survive from behind won’t be likely. Tasmania would require something similar but is complicated.

The last area to look at is nsw a state that looked like a wipeout going in now seems to have buckled the trend with almost a reverse of 2010 labor held strong in western sydney. The results went better in many but not in all. The first area to comment on is the central coast both where woman-woman two candidate contests with Craig Thomson coming up well short with only peter slipper historically doing worst which does not show much about honesty. Dobell was a very close contest and despite the Thomson saga labor came within 3/5ths of one percent, Robertson well fell but not as bad as expected. The nats wasteful campaigns got to 12% in throsby while the seat of MacArthur went to possibly one of it’s safest liberal margins in it’s history labor held Cunningham. The seat of hunter snapped a long run as a safe seat with fitzgibion having a marginal seat for the first time since the hawke goverenment. The Abbott name factor had no effect in refusing labor’s margin in Newcastle to below a record. Labor got a new member in charlton and held shortland the libs suprised many in their swing in Patterson putting it right near the primeeminister’s seat of warringah which was held the north shore kept strong lib with Mitchell the most western of the seats being the safest metropolitan seat while Phillip ruddock has a mandate to be the second longest serving member I all time. The rural areas saw page and Eden-Monaco remain litness test Gilmore supprised many in having the libs margin halfed. The libs had no trouble in hume without a nat and the nats won both former independent held seats New England and lyne labor is reduced to only Richmond in rural areas. Parkes was the easiest win to the coalition. Some sydney seats have what looks like temporary in Cook after a state swing while Hughes is now increased a bit. The Western Sydney blow out never happened the libs won one seat off labor (Lindsay) despite one if the worst candidate comments of the campaign. The inner seats of banks and Reid fell for the first time while Barton was a very close lib win in the 3rd safest seat to fall in the country. Greenway held on against expectations due to a terrible candidate James Diaz. Fowler was the biggest swing to labor anywhere in the country. The senate had controversy that a commentator who was on the drum recently denies saw name confusion elected a liberal democrat (not the liberal the democrats or the Christian democrats) almost costing assistant treasure author sensdious his seat who succeeded Helen Conan in the last term labor got 2 seats with one elected already retired bob Carr. There was no return of Pauline Hanson.

This is a review of the territories due to fewer seats than Tasmania these don’t warrant their own the act showed brief swings against labor but neiter looked meaningful the Northern Territory had the most marginal seat swing to labor of 11 (of which 7 where in qld). In Solomon leaves liberal natasha Griggs in trouble to hold on next time and an indication that the Giles goverenment is not showing strong in Darwin and would be requiring a tough fight the rural seat of lingiari had labor’s member returned despite another swing this could mean one of two other issues the live export trade or the crazy policies of the Giles goverenment

South Australia proved to be a record state in the senate for a long time the reps saw a couple of seats have sigifincant results Hindmarsh fell to the libs the 5th safest labor seat to fall in the country and the safest mainland seat to lose an incumbent labor member but despite expectations of large swings labor held on in their other seats with makin getting it’s first opposition member  and the other seats wheren’t as significant historically while Adelaide was a rare all-female contest the rest had no significant history the lib seats showed nothing big except southcott snapped his. Drought of swings while Pyne had a bigger than average swing. In sturt. The nats bad result in barker was more to do with bad state history that the nats have to work on but while I won’t go into details it will be a hard battle for labor. The senate was crazy extreme conservative city Bernardi was no suprised elected first while Xenophon beat Wong for 2nd with Wong winning 3rd labor lost their other seat with don Farrell becoming the first senator from 2nd for a major party in the senate. Birongham got lucky in preference swaps against xenephon’s running mate while Hansen-young got lucky the other seat was won by family first’s bob day (an ex lib) took the last seat

I am now talking about the Tasmanian federal election with a stet election coming up any bad result wouldN’t help the result but labor fell badly the libs campaign especially in bass showed how a mixture of well-wounded candidates would help the fact that two seats that Are the biggest to fAll Braddom and Lyons was a bad indication both sitting on big margins on 7.5 and 12.3 percent each the only seat not to swing heavily against labor was franklin which also survived with a smaller but useful margin Denison suprised many by the swing to Wilkie. The libs hopes for a extra seat failed to palmer with labor losing a seat the greens held on.

Today i am talking about the Victorian result which has proven to be a major under archiving state for the coalition and the greens still making a decent standing in the house despite lib preferences the state saw the second returning lib in Latrobe Jason wood taking out labor’s Laura smyth. Corangmite fell back to liberal hands after a record two turns in labor hands (a labor record) the nats failed to archive a strong vote. Deakin was the third loss not helped by redistribution. Labor struggled to hold the rest of their seats former speaker Anna Burke got lucky in Chisholm. Alan griffin didn’t need to pack his office early in Bruce the rural seats of bendigo and mcewen swung heavily but held on mcewen being the closest contest labor held seat in the country going later in count another tight contest was indi resulting in a sitting liberal defeated Sophie mirabella costing a cabinet job going down to Cathy McGowan the nats held mallee easier than 93 against the libs. A bad record in safe seats including jenny MacKlin in jagajaga should nerve labor in the future the greens beat the libs in batman for the second time running and moved ahead in wills of the libs they held Melbourne. The senate saw motoring enthusiast Ricky muir cause an upset the greens won a seat with Janet rice holding on the status minimum 2 labor 2 lib contiued with Helen Kroger defeated for the libs and a temporary labor senator lost. 

Labor would be glad to hold all 3 seats after a 4 elections in a row of loses brand buckled the trend holding on at a below average swing. Perth and freemantle held on returning labor the earlier electing a new mp Alana mate reman succeeding Stephen smith 

Just to say sorry that it took a bit to resume work on this I’ll start with qld after a bad run of 75 and 96 almost wiping out labor the swing wasn’t bad but the result had some shocks the interest is on a few seats the conservatives barely gained Petrie and capricornia but how the result left many surprises the Brisbane area had labor do very unusually well for this kind of election  

Today I am talking about rural issues in general.  The main issues this election incude the csg mining which is a major problem in some areas and there is a debate going on.  The conservatives don’t understand the problem of big trucks going through country areas and labor has issues with the live export trade but this still will be hard to make impact on conservative voters.

Today I am talking about agriculture issues at the election.  This is an area people have had issues with as the greens don’t agree with exporting live cattle unlike labor who doesn’t think it’s an issue.  The libs also take the view that it doesn’t need fixing but this is a big debate because it is left v right  and city v country. this begins part 1 of a rural focus.

Today I am talking about the immigration issues for the election.  This is a topic in which people think that stopping refugees coming to our country is important (which I think is racist) but you also have to consider humanity. liberals are extreme buying boats and turning them around, sending people offshore, giving them temporary protection visas, they have this policy called operation sovereign borders (not a good idea).  Palmer believes in a big Australia. Three parties don’t believe in multi-culruralism. Labor has the perminant resettlement plan but isn’t much they still have the Malaysian solution. The greens are different as they believe in on shore processing and better regional solutions. Next I will discuss rural issues. PS there are 97 Victorian senate candidates which is ridiculous

Today I am talking about prime ministers losing their seats while there have only been two. Stanley Bruce had a terrible goverenment with a disunited nationalist/country (predecessors to libs and nats  goverenment) his seat of flinders was lost in 29 to labor. In 1974 and 2007 a minor party dlp in 74 and democrats in 2007 were wiped out so the leader was beaten. In 1990 nationals leader Charles blunt lost Richmond to labor after preferences. The democrats weren’t the biggest shock in 2007 when John Howard who had represented benelong since 1974 lost to labor in a big shock, this was after a lot of preferences. If Rudd loses he will be the first labor prime minister or leader to lose his seat, this seems unlikely but at this point the polls don’t add up but this didn’t even happen at state level in qld and nsw last time. On a similar topic Rudd lost in 96 to the libs the first time so it isn’t impossible. 

Today I am talking issues related to health.  In the 2013 election for the opposition promising funding to upgrade hospitals is enough but they are freezing health spending rather than increasing it and it this means the wait lists will increase which is a big problem. Labor isn’t changing the model which is a problem but are harder on smoking than the opposition. A smokers rights senator could put a vote for whatever he wants with smoking but they and the legalise marijuana parties don’t get votes on health.

Today I am continuing on a theme from yesterday and discussing major issues at the election.  This time I’m talking about education and this is a big issue.  labor believes in a new funding model and while there is support in 5 states and territories, except the three northern ones, this has bad strings attached according to Abbott who has agreed to this without these strings attached. labor

Today i am talking about rural transport and how it effects the Federal election.  The contrast is that the libs believe in road transport and refuse to spend money on urban rail and have no plan on high-speed rail.  This is a big issue.  They also aren’t fixing Victorian rail and are known for preferring to sell airlines than agriculture and also have no plan for a second sydney airport.  So unless metropolitan roads are what you care about voting libs won’t help transport. Labor on the other hand has plans for a slow high-speed rail several city rail projects they have recently announced more on second sydney airport. The greens have the edge on high-speed rail but not much else is known.

Parties and independents have to often swap preferences. this has come up again with the libs rumoured to be considering preferencing labor in the nats safest seat Mallee (nat 24.8) this is really tricky because labor usually comes in the top two while winnig is doubtful in a very safe seat like mallee this results in a unusual situation. If the results are after the elimination of most minor candidates

The chance of a hung parliament is less likely than last time but today I am discussing what the independents and minor parties will do if they had to support one side or other, this is hard to predict.
Adam bandt (Melbourne greens) labor
Andrew Wilkie (denision independent) labor
Bob katter (KAP Kennedy) ? (Supported Rudd but don’t know… probably liberal
Peter slipper (fisher independent) labor
Craig Thomson (dobell independent) labor
Clive palmer (pup fairfax) liberal
Cathy McGowan (indi independent) ? (New challenger) support new election
Nats wa (durack and o’connor) liberal
Greens (batman greylandor and Sydney) labor
KAP (Dawson) hard to say.
Many are hypertheticals. On a another topic, torbay’s now not standing as an independent. Many other candidates are uncertainties. senators don’t count as their vote doesn’t decide government:

Two things to talk  about now.   firstly,  three cornered contests happen when a lib or nat retires and then they can both run in the seat.  As I mentioned the focus this time is on mallee (nat 24.8) as in 93 the nats held on but this will be tougher as since than the libs took the next door seat murray (lib 19.8) off the nats in 96. on that trend it will be close. the rules are that the incumbents can’t be challenged by a member of the party but some are wastes such as this election in throsby (alp 12.3).  Others have proven to be shocks such as a lib succeeding Tim Fischer in farrer (lib 13.7) And Alby Shultz in Hume (lib 8.7)in 98.  The last time the nats won a seat off the libs regurlaly was in 2010 but it wasn’t a three cornered contest in o’connor (nat 3.6 v lib).  It, durack and barker and any other seats in wa and sa aren’t three cornered. This could create a mess in corangamite (alp 0.3) at this election. The libs did a deal to ensure they keep hume and Gilmore with the nats getting a free go at New England and lyne, and other seats were involved in the deal. The other thing I am talking about is fran bailey former member for mcewen who did two things in her last term, she won a recount in her seat – this can be called for if the result is close,none were called for in 2010, but the big thing is how by being absent it was one of two reasons turnbull lost his job as opposition leader.  This and slipper voting made the difference, it would have been a draw of the hat otherwise. Lastly the last time a very senior minister was defeated or ex-senior minister was Bass in 1975, but this doesn’t count prime minister or party leaders such as John Howard or Charles Blunt.

Today another two topics. first of all rural independents. these have existed on and off since the federation when a independent won capricornia in Queensland.  Since then they have been there on and off. No rural independents have made history until Peter Andren was elected, he was one of the first to fight off the nats in his seat of Calare.  Around that time three new state mps Tony Windsor, rob oakshott, and Richard Torbay all had their own history. Windsor was disendorsed by the nats in the 91 election at state level but he went to be one of the most interesting federal independents in New England by supporting labor in the hung parliament,as did oakshott who was a state nat til 02 who then became a state independent then a federal one winning lyne, he also backed labor. Richard Torbay was a rural independent who became a nat candidate but lost pre-selection as there are rumours that has linked to the obeid problem. Bob katter also fits this category as a nat turned independent turned into his own party. The other interesting topic came up when I found labor ahead in greenway which is a marginal alp seat.  The last time this happened that a party held a seat under 1% was in sa at federal election in 98.  This means that the pendulum doesn’t mean much in some cases.

My last preview in the state profile is of Victoria,  where I live.  Once a strong conservative state now has two more conservative seats than wa.  This state has some potential for both parties but the replacement of Gillard will hurt labor most in this state with the question being how close it will be.

the first seat to watch is Melbourne (grn 5.9 v alp) the greens only lower house seat this will be hurt by liberal preferences now going to labor, but brandt is popular and won’t go down easy. batman (alp v grn 7.5) won’t change despites ferguson’s retirement. For the libs there are a few chances, deakin (alp 0.6) where the redistribution will hurt will change now. Latrobe (alp 1.6) also looks gone for labor as does corangamite (alp 0.3) gillards departure will hurt them. If labor holds Latrobe and deakin then Aston (lib 1.0) and casey (lib 1.8) could go labor with just a small swing. Two shadow ministers have problems. Bruce billson dunkley (lib 1.2) is a swing seat. Sophie Mirabella in indi (lib 9.0) is under threat by an independent and could be a very close battle against my relative Cathy McGowan (no I’m not biased but she is very good). The seats of Chisholm (alp 5.8) will be close as will mallee (nat 24.8) in a 3 cornered contest against the libs but the seats shouldn’t change. All other seats won’t change.

The senate is interesting with the dlp, family first, the greens, palmer, for the last two seats the libs won’t get 4 in this state. This will be very close but labor and libs will get 2 each without trouble.

Prediction Lower house labor 20 lib 15 nat 2
Prediction upper house labor 2 lib 3 grn 1

Today I am talking about the big state of nsw.  This state is the biggest state in seats but has lost several seats in recent years being Lowe and gwydir. no change to boundaries this time.

The big battle ground is west sydney, one of these seats lyndsay (alp 1.1) where polls see the libs taking it easily despite a comment this week about their candidate. Greenway (alp 0 9) is the states most marginal and should easily fall. Banks (alp 1.4) Reid (alp 2.7) would likely fall for the first time in a long time.  The swing could get worse and then parramatta (alp 4.4) and McMahon (alp 7.8) are risky seats while traditional seats werriwa (alp 6.8) and Watson (alp 9.1) and fowler (alp 8.8) could go but the last two should not fall.  neither should chifley (alp 12.3) and blaxland (alp just less).

Outside of Sydney Robertson (alp 1.0) and dobell (alp/ind 5.1) are gone. Labor has three rural seats and page (alp 4.2) and Eden monaro (alp 4.2) are close but despite mike Kelly’s promotion probably won’t hold and will go with government as usual, but page should stay as should Richmond (alp 7.0) labor’s other under threat seats  in Sydney are Barton (alp 6.9) and kingsford smith (alp 5.1) while labor has to fight the greens in Sydney (alp 18.5) and graydler (alp 4.7 v grn) make them no certainty. Labor might get Macquarie (lib 1.3) the ex litmus test seat (currently Eden-Monaco) mcarthur (lib 3.0) while labor’s only rural hope is Gilmore (lib 5.3).  It would take a big labor win for benelong (lib 3.1) and Patterson (lib 5.3) to change but no change likely for the conservatives in Hughes, parkes, Calare, riverina, Hume, cook, north sydney, warringah, berorwa, Mitchell, Bradford, mckellar, Cowper, farrer. Hume might possibly have changed with a nat candidate while Cowper would be a unlikely change. Labor should hold their 4 hunter region and 2 Illawarra seats. New England is interesting as Barnaby Joyce is trying to move to the lower house but may still be challenged by their original candidate Richard Torbay, we will know later today, otherwise he still win. Lyne should return to the nats after Oakshott.

The senate should see 2 libs and a nat an 2 alp.  For the libs to gain a majority in the senate this would be their last chance on a 4th seat if Queensland and wa succeed, but the odds are against it. The last spot would either be the first green or the third alp candidate

Prediction lower house labor 18 liberal 24 nat 6
Prediction upper house labor 2 nat 1 lib 2 greens 1

Another preview, this time for the northern territory.  The NT for a long time only had one seat until 2001 when the seat was split in two into Solomon (Darwin based) and lingiari (everything else) this state has both seats that can go either way and sometimes in a opposite trend to other states.

Labor’s strong seat is lingiari (alp 3.7) held by former member for the original seat, warren snowdon (no relation to Edward) this seat hasn’t yet been lost by labor and has a CLP (national) candidate with little local knowledge and didn’t know much about the Alice, but it had a swing against labor at the state election. The other seat Solomon (lib 1.7) is a swing seat and could go back to labor if the polls go according to plan but it does benefit the libs having an incumbent.  It didn’t swing much at state level.

The questions are on the senate with trish crossin retiring for labor and is replaced controversially by nova Peris.  Never has these senate seats been won by a minor party and this could change with the greens one day but unlike ACT as very different and won’t change while nigel scullion is safely there  in any case.

Prediction lower house lib 1 alp 1
Prediction upper house nat 1 alp 1

Another preview this time in qld. This state with 30 seats is the fastest growing state since 93.  This is the second election without a new seat (first being 01) this state is labor’s worst traditionally in 75 they held only oxley in 96 only held Brisbane and rankin.  In 98 labor did so badly they handed the libs the new seat of Blair but regained Dickson, Lilley, Griffith, bowman, oxley and capricornia they also gained Ryan in a by election in 01 but the vote has gone backwards losing Dickson and Ryan in 01 and bonner and bowman (which than was a notional lib seat ) in 04. labor got to 15 seats under Rudd and up to 17 after a redistribution but are back to 8 seats but a lot of interest in if rudd’s comeback will effect the election.

The first two labor seats to watch are Petrie (alp 2.5) and Morton (alp 1.1) both were lib seats going into 07 but both lacked the candidate last time as the member for petrie moved to the seat of Brisbane (lib 1.13) which was held by labor since 1980 but was a shock change last time.  The candidate for Moreton also has big shoes to fill.  Brisbane would be the first to go if Rudd won. Lilley (alp 3.2) has issues in that ex treasurer Wayne swan damaged the economy.  It was the libs biggest target until the leadership change but now the focus is on the prime ministers seat of Griffith (alp 8.5) labor’s only non marginal seat and Abbott has been campaigning second hardest in that, but it won’t change.
Capricornia (alp  3.7) is marginal without an incumbent so could easily fall. Labor’s seats in the south of Brisbane oxley (alp 5.8) and rankin (alp 5.4) where Emerson is retiring are long shots for the libs. Blair (alp 4 2) can go either way if the libs win but would stay alp if they win. due to the labor voting area of Ipswich.

The conservatives only have a long history in 6 of their 20 seats wright, maranoa McPherson and fadden, groom and moncrieff.  These and wide bay can’t fall to labor and while the Katter and palmers parties could make it interesting.  The seats to watch are Flynn (nat 3.5) where labor has their strongest state seat (not held by them though I meant v lnp) could go either way. Dawson (nat 2.4) is a three way contest after.close fight of three parties. Two safe seats fairfax (lib  6.9) and hinkler (nat 10.4) both with popular incumbents retiring and could be a big swing and with Clive palmer’s own party make it tough. Fisher (lib/ind 4.1 v alp) is a tough call but with the long awaited match up of slipper v brough labor has a chance. brough’s old seat longman (lib 2.6) is a swing seat and can fall to labor against the parliament’s youngest mp.    Leichart (lib 4.6) and Herbert
(lib 2.1) are two other ones that it could go three ways. In Brisbane Dickson (5.1) is more secure but is still a threat. Bowman (lib 10.4) has the margin inflated but will hold. Bonner (lib 2.8) can go either way as can forde (lib 1.6) with Peter Beattie as a candidate. Ryan (lib 7.2) is no chance for Labor. No change in Bob Katter’s seat of  Kennedy (KAP 18.3 v nat)

As with the senate the libs and nats need four seats between them and to replace Boswell and Boyce. labor also needs to replace Hogg.  katter and palmer will fight the greens for the last seat. Conservatives will get 3 and labor 2. Labor can win the third if it goes well.

Prediction lower house labor 11 liberal 14 nat 3 KAP 2
Prediction upper house labor 2 lib 2 nat 1 KAP 1

Next I am going to look at the key state of Tasmania this state has a history of one sided results with no libs elected in 98, 01, 07 or 2010 but has seen the same result for labor in 75-87 when labor regained Denison.  It has always been entitled to 5 seats regardless of population.

This election looks to be the return of the libs to the lower house. the first seat to watch is bass (alp 6.7) which looks to get another new mp.  Polling had the libs winning on primary vote alone but after Rudd took over the race it has tightened but it is highly unlikely to be held. Braddon (alp 7.5) is also under major threat as it was lost in 04, this seat was held by labor 4 out of 5 elections like bass, but is very vulnerable. The third seat to watch is Denison (ind 1.2 v alp) both labor and the greens want Wilkie gone but as an incumbent it should be an interesting race.  If the swing against Labor gets too much then franklin (alp 10.8) and Lyons (alp 12.3) could be under threat but that would be improbable.

With the senate the libs need a third seat which would come at the expense of labor.  This is the only state where the greens won’t lose a seat, but to get to 42.9% is no easy task. Since the last election there was a change in labor senators but that effects 2016 not this election. The battle for the last seat will be the big focus.

Prediction lower house labor 2 lib 2 ind 1
Prediction senate labor 2 lib 3 green 1

Another preview this time for the 15 seat state of wa (western Australia).

The state has been a strong liberal state federally for a long time with the last labor majority at the 2001 redistribution, but hasn’t held a majority at a Federal election for a long time and hold only 3 seats which is less than the amount of senators. The libs hold 11 with one nat. This makes the wa state election important where labor lost 7 seats but regained the state seat of fremantle.

Labor’s most marginal seat is Brand (alp 3.9) this seat had always been labor even in 96 when then Beazley moved there.and has only nearly been lost once.  It wasn’t affected by the state swing.  Then there is Beazley’s old seat Swan (lib 2.5) which was lost in 07 and 10 (after redistribution) after labor won it back but could go back if labor do well at the election but this area went against labor at state level so it is unlikely. Next door Hasluck (lib 0.6) is very marginal and since its creation has never elected an incumbent and is held by Australia’s first indigenous Federal MP but also is north of the swan river and might just stay lib. Perth (alp 5.9) has had a roller coaster unholdable under Gillard was likely to be held under Rudd until Smith retired making it vunerable, and then labor preselected a former state minister and most successful candidate in terms of swing towards them at the last election, but it will have the location problem.  Fremantle (alp 5.7) hasn’t been lost since the 30s and is completely out of the libs
reach since Rudd took over as under Gillard labor could still have held it as the location favours labor. Don Randall won’t lose again in Canning (lib 2.2) as there is no popular candidate this time against him and despite losing popular judi moylan Pearce (lib 8.9) wouldn’t change without a nat swing, but even that shouldn’t beat former wa treasure christian porter. Cowan (lib 9.5) the other seat labor lost in 07 won’t go back. The two rural seats Durack (lib 13.7) and OConnor (nat 3.6 v lib) are very hard seats with both incumbents retiring and are fought out between the libs and nats.  No chance of change in Forrest, Moore, curtin, tangey and Stirling won’t leave the lib fold.

The senate is where the libs need 4 seats to get into a senate majority situation. both parties lose a senator with former labor leader chris Evans (not related) and Alan eagleton. (Lib senator who is retiring) the greens senator Scott Ludlum is under threat but if the vote falls below 42.9% the three quota amount makes it hard to recover. the nats also hope for a senate seat which may be a difference in this state

Prediction lower house labor 3 liberal 11 nat 1
Prediction senate lib 3 labor 2 green 1

Now I’ll look at the ACT the first of the two territories and on history it has benefited labor.

The seat of fraser has been held by labor since 1974 when it was created, the seat of Canberra has only been in liberal hands twice 1975-80 and 1995-96. the old seat of ACT which preceded it always benefited labor and the seat of namadgi (question on spelling) which existed in 96 and abolished in 98 on the pendulum. Canberra is the more marginal (alp 9.1%) which is beyond even if the landslide predicted against Gillard over the public servants cuts.  The liberals expect Fraser (alp 14.2) despite the name of the other seat is always been safe Labor and is well out of liberals reach being an entirely metropolitan territory means there is no National party making it a Labor v Liberal contest with the greens coming third. 

This should stay the same in the lower house but the senate pulls an interesting scenario with popular senator gary Humphries losing his pre selection to act liberals opposition leader Zed Vazeldua (third job in a year) who brought the last election to a tie with the one green giving labor government and he faces a tough challenge from a popular green candidate.  But for the libs vote to fall below a third the quota required for a seat looks unlikely and even then the greens would hope the libs don’t get many preferences and still have to beat the second labor candidate the incumbent labor senator kate lundy should hold on easy. There is no word of a bullet train party candidate (not the name) in this state despite discussion.

prediction lower house labor 2
prediction upper house labor 1 liberal 1 
next i’ll cover western Australia

welcome to my political opinion site ‘political posturing’!

I am beginning with a preview for the election on September 7 state by state.  For those who are interested I am a labor backer but I will try to be impartial.

I will start with the state of south Australia. There has been 11 seats since Boothbyon was abolished in 2004, leaving labor with only one safe seat in Port Adelaide.  The loss of Adelaide in the 90s made sa with fewer seats in fact in 2004 going in with only Port Adelaide and Kingston with incumbents but also had wakefield.   Post redistribution both Kingston and wakefield were lost in 04 but regained in 07 but labor gained Adelaide back and Hindmarsh both won for the first time since bob hawke was prime minister. Labor also gained Makin in 07 and came short in Boothby and Sturt which remained unchanged in 2010 with Labor sharply increasing their margins in their seats making Port Adeliade labor’s safest non-Victorian seat and making Kingston the next safest seat in the state and securing their hold on Makin.

Despite that polls indicate labor may go backwards indeed without marginal seats the interest will be on Adelaide (ALP 7.5) and Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1) the most marginal seats in the state both have high profile mps. but I was in the electorate of Adeliade recently and there is no small presence of liberal posters. If the polls go the opposite way Boothby (Lib 0.6) which may change anyway without a swing to the coalition in the seat since the incumbent came in and Sturt (Lib 3.6) which has Chris Pyne still not safe. If the swing gets big then Wakefield (alp 10.5) could be under threat and labor may be in trouble in Kingston (alp 14.6) and Makin (alp 12.1)  but both seats look out of the liberals reach on the margin. Labor should easily hold Port Adeliade and the Libs should hold Mayo and Grey the question is can the nats challenge the libs in barker (lib 13.7) which wasn’t contested by the nats in the last election but after they handed labor state government it might not be that easy.

The senate has four of the six incumbent senators.  Interesting Penny Wong after going behind the back of Gillard, who was from this state, is benefitted from being number one but if people vote below the line there may be a backlash against her. Independent Xenophon should hold on the same vote but may face the back lash against Independents generally. Hansen young would be the Greens only hope but if the polls continue she has little chance and Bernardi should overcome the horrible comments he’s made as he is first on the Lib ticket and it is hard to get votes from below the line candidate (although I have a few friends who like him).

ACT later today.

prediction overall lower house labor 6, liberal 5
prediction upper house liberal 3 labor 2 independent 1